Open Conference Systems, Schumpeter 2010

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Business Cycles, Regional Growth and Resilience in the Danish ICT Sector

Jacob Rubæk Holm, Christian Richter Oestergaard

Last modified: 2010-06-04

Abstract


Studies of the spatial evolution of industries often disregard the impact of changes in the business cycle on the performance of industries in particular regions. As the business cycle unfolds the selection environment in which firms compete changes drastically. Across regions particular industries seem not to be affected much by this, while others react sharply, exhibiting highly unstable evolution. Therefore, the evolution of an industry will be influenced not only by the regions’ and firms’ abilities to create factors that support growth, but also the resilience to external events. Thus resilience is an important quality in the evolution of industries. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the sources of resilience in the Danish ICT sector from 1992 to 2006. The point of departure is a model explaining the yearly growth in ICT sector employment across regions. The regression models include factors such as diversity, size of the region, human capital intensity, average firm size, entry of new firms, and employment specialisation in dotcom. Then we include business cycle variables and add interactions to the regressions. Diversity and size of the region decouple the evolution of the regional ICT sector from the business cycle. Furthermore, specialisation in dotcom protects the regional growth from shifts in the ICT business cycle. This indicates that the resilience in the Danish ICT sector varies across the regions and that the variability depends on industry structure.

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