Is Manufacturing still an Engine of Growth in Developing Countries?
Adam Szirmai, Bart Verspagen
Last modified: 2010-06-03
Abstract
Since the middle of the eighteenth century, manufacturing has functioned as the main engine of economic growth and development. However, in recent research, questions have been raised concerning the continued importance of the manufacturing sector for economic development. This paper reexamines the role of manufacturing as a driver of growth in developing countries in the period 1950-2005. The paper makes use of a newly constructed panel dataset of annual value added shares (in current prices) for manufacturing, industry, agriculture and services for the period 1950-2005. Regression analysis is used to analyse the relationships between sectoral shares and per capita GDP growth for different time periods and different groups of countries. Besides an analysis of the contribution of manufacturing to growth, we also examine the contribution of manufacturing and services to growth accelerations, using a modified version of the Hausman and Rodrik definition of growth accelerations. The empirical analysis is generally consistent with the engine of growth hypothesis. The role of manufacturing seems of particular importance during growth accelerations.
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